The team that snoozes, loses.

I am sick to death of all the other previews and predictions I have read about this game.  Why even play it if we already know Texas, being one play away from the championship game and shafted by a weird Big 12 tiebreaker rule, is going to demolish the slow-footed Ohio State, who lost the last two championship games because they apparently didn’t deserve to be there in the first place?  I actually saw a prediction of 56-7!  Texas is not the New England Patriots in the snow and Ohio State is not the Arizona Cardinals.  Tressel is too good a coach and Ohio State is too good a football team for either to happen.  Texas may win, but let’s not write it off as a waste of time.

How do I love the Buckeyes?  Let me count the ways:

1.  Ohio State has a very sound defense, ranked at the top of every category.  Texas did not play a defense even close to Ohio State’s, especially a secondary lead by Jim Thorpe award-winner Malcolm Jenkins.  Ohio State beat a very similar Texas team a couple years ago in Austin.  True, OSU has had some trouble with spread offenses but not in every case.  It’s not a given that it will happen differently now.

2.  Texas never played an offense with two run threats as potent as the Buckeyes’.  Oklahoma State has a similar offense and Texas barely squeaked by in that one.  I’m not saying the OSU offense is better than Oklahoma or Texas Tech, only that these offenses played into the strengths of the Texas defense while Ohio State plays into their weaknesses.  True, Texas has the one-man wrecking crew in Brian Orakpo but if Ohio State can get around that prodigious challenge, then look out.  Terrelle Pryor is bigger than one of Texas’ linebackers and is essentially the same size as the others.  Plus, he’s much faster.

3.  Tressel loves to play ball control and field possession.  His favorite play is the punt.  The more time the OSU offense is on the field and the more Texas starts from inside their 20, the more Ohio State wins.  The more Ohio State turns the ball over and goes three and out, the more Ohio State loses.  Ironically, the question to ask is not whether Ohio State is slow but whether the Buckeyes can slow down the game.

4.  Arguably the biggest variable in this game is Terrelle Pryor. He improved slightly over his first five starts, but showed tangible improvement after his bye-week by having his best three games of the season. Imagine how much improvement he’ll have with four times that amount of practice. His special talent may be what decides this game.

5.  Finally, the intangibles.  It’s just as likely that Ohio State can suffer from ennui from playing in the Fiesta Bowl for the fourth time in the BCS era as Texas can suffer from boredom at being sent to the wrong bowl game.  It could be siesta in the Fiesta if both teams don’t overcome the chips on their shoulders.  Or, if both teams decide to prove something, it could be the best bowl game of the year.

Consider this history:    

Ohio State is 4-1 in the Fiesta Bowl all-time with the only loss being in 1981 to Penn State. The wins were over Pitt, Miami, Kansas State, and Notre Dame.

Ohio State is 5-0 in Bowls vs the Big 12. Check that. FIVE AND ZERO, with two wins over Texas A&M, one win over Colorado, one win over Kansas State, and one win over Oklahoma State.

In bowl games not against the SEC, Jim Tressel is 5-0 (overall 5-3), including 2-0 vs the Big 12. He is also 3-0 in all non-championship BCS games (all of them in the Fiesta Bowl).

Texas is 2-3 vs current Big Ten schools in bowl games with wins in the 06 Alamo Bowl over Iowa and 05 Rose Bowl over Michigan, and losses to Iowa in the 84 Freedom bowl and Penn State in both the 97 Fiesta and the 72 Cotton.

In the Fiesta Bowl, Texas is currently 0-1 with one loss to Penn State in 1997.

In Mack Brown’s tenure, he is 7-3 in bowls including 2-0 vs the Big Ten in bowl games. In BCS bowls, he is 2-0 with wins over USC in the National Title game and Michigan in the previous Rose Bowl.

Ohio State and Texas have only met twice before, once in 2005 and the other in 2006. Texas won the first matchup with stellar QB Vince Young on their way to the National Championship. Ohio State won the second meeting on their way to the NC game. This match will effectively break the tie.

So far, this bowl season has been dominated by the better defensive and rushing team as we’ve seen with TCU over BYU, Cal over Miami, West Virginia over North Carolina, and others. We’ll see if this one goes the same way.

- Donovan Johnson

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